251014 [BTC] Bitcoin Outlook

<Current Status>

Following the unpredictable drop on October 10th, a slight rebound occurred, but it has been suppressed again and the decline is ongoing.

→ Currently positioned at a critical juncture: will the short-term correction continue, or will it rebound and shift to an uptrend?

Both scenarios remain possible at this point,

- If it rises in the 110K~111K range, it could form a double bottom and surge, potentially reaching 118K~120K.

- However, whether an immediate further rise follows the initial uptick requires monitoring subsequent movements.

- The scenario where one or two more all-time highs remain possible is still valid.

- If it breaks down, a deeper decline following a head-and-shoulders pattern could potentially reach 98K~100K.

- A positive scenario would be finding support around 107K~110K and generating a quick rebound, which would be a very positive signal.

Currently, it has fallen to the 111K range, liquidating approximately $120 million in long positions and absorbing liquidity.
There is currently no liquidity in the lower range, while $150 million in short positions exist in the upper 116K range.
Bitcoin tends to move towards areas with liquidity in the long term, so it is clear it will move upward soon.
However, whether it continues its short-term downtrend before rising or rebounds here requires observation.

It is currently finding support at the 0.382 level. If it breaks below this level, there is potential for a decline to the 107K range.
It is crucial to hold support here and break above the 0.5 level at 114K. If it can break above and stabilize at the 0.618 level around 117, it opens the possibility for a larger upward move, so this area warrants careful observation.

Currently, a CME gap exists between 110K and 111K, making it highly likely this gap will be filled.
After filling this gap, it typically doesn't immediately rise but instead moves sideways near the gap or may even pull back further before continuing. This possibility should be kept in mind.

<Conclusion>

Based on various analyses,

upward momentum still exists, and the hopeful scenario of reaching new highs remains possible.
However, the question is whether this correction will be significant or a minor pullback followed by a strong rebound.
my conclusion leans toward a high probability of a minor correction followed by a significant rebound.
Therefore, while it remains to be seen whether the current pullback will find its bottom in the 107K~110K range or the 98K~100K range,
I am placing greater weight on the possibility that this is a pullback before a major rally and intend to view it as an opportunity for additional buying.

Recent Posts