251026 [BTC] Bitcoin Outlook

Bitcoin is currently positioned at a critical inflection point and is rising ahead of next week's important interest rate cut announcement, suggesting a high likelihood of a positive outcome. (but read till the end)

However, given the extremely high volatility, caution is advised for those trading.

Current Situation Briefing

• However, it is currently showing a positive development by moving back into the channel it broke out of in mid-October.

• If it stabilizes within the channel, it could potentially reach the upper boundary of the channel. It is crucial to monitor whether it stabilizes well and does not break out of the channel again.

• Should it break out again, there is potential for a decline back to the 101K-102K range.

Even if it continues to rise from here,

• significant resistance lies above at 114K, 115K, and 117K. Unless it experiences a strong, decisive breakout, it is highly likely to encounter resistance and pull back.

• Based on the breakout of the 4-hour double bottom (blue line break), an ascent to 115K-116K appears possible, but a scenario where it touches these levels before declining must also be considered.

Concern: Liquidity

• The recent sharp decline absorbed significant liquidity, with most liquidity positioned at the top at that time. However, as of now, long positions have increased substantially, surpassing short positions, indicating a trend reversal.

• Charts tend to move towards areas with liquidity. Therefore, even if a short-term rise occurs, there is a possibility it will move again to absorb liquidity at lower levels.

Conclusion

• The market-discussed season end has not yet arrived, and an altcoin season is also expected soon.

• However, the probability of an immediate, mindless rally is low. Numerous variables exist, making it difficult to simply declare an upward or downward trend. The likelihood of continued messy price action remains high.

• The medium-to-long-term bullish outlook remains intact.

  • Nevertheless, given multiple possible scenarios,

  • it is prudent to adopt a strategy based on two primary scenarios:

    • 1) An immediate rally

    • 2) A decline followed by a rally.

Despite this, the view that a price of 127K to 135K will be achieved within this year is maintained.

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